Monday, November 24, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $10,612/mt last Friday night, hitting an initial low of $10,610.5/mt, then the price center fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $10,798.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $10,778/mt, up 0.86%, with a trading volume of 24,000 lots and open interest of 321,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 85,750 yuan/mt last Friday night, touched a low of 85,670 yuan/mt initially, then fluctuated upward to a high of 86,230 yuan/mt by the close, and finally settled at 86,180 yuan/mt, up 0.61%, with a trading volume of 44,000 lots and open interest of 189,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) On November 21, Japan Customs recently updated the classification standard for copper wire nodules, adding a definition for those with a diameter or thickness above 0.00035 meters and a copper content of 99.9%. Copper wire nodules that do not meet this standard may be classified under HS code 7406 for copper powder and flakes in the future, rather than under copper scrap. This adjustment implies that some copper wire nodules exported to Japan may face product category tariffs, increasing import costs. The industry expects this policy to raise the import threshold for recycled copper raw materials into Japan and prompt traders to reassess their export structure to Japan.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On November 21, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted at a premium of 20-160 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 85,650 to 85,980 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE copper futures mainly fluctuated between 85,600 and 85,830 yuan/mt, with the inter-month spread fluctuating between a contango of 40 yuan/mt and a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened to over 800 yuan/mt. Looking ahead this week, warrants are expected to continue flowing out, but as it is the long-term contract negotiation season, suppliers are expected to have limited room for price concessions. Spot transactions for SHFE copper are still expected to maintain a small premium.
(2) Guangdong: On November 21, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a premium of 50-140 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 95 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 40-0 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 20 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 85,855 yuan/mt, down 605 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 85,740 yuan/mt, down 605 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, lower copper prices stimulated downstream restocking, pushing spot premiums higher, with a generally positive trading atmosphere.
(3) Imported copper: On November 21, warrant prices were $28-40/mt, QP December, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; bill of lading prices were $44-56/mt, QP December, with the average price up $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF bill of lading) was $0-12/mt, QP December, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November and early December.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 21, the futures closing price was 85,670 yuan/mt, down 620 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of secondary copper raw materials fell by 300 yuan/mt. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,000-78,200 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,675 yuan/mt, down 391 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,180 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, importers of recycled copper raw materials indicated that although downstream procurement volume weakened as the year-end approached, the substantial domestic demand kept imported secondary copper raw materials in a state of undersupply over the long term. China's imports of recycled copper raw materials in October were 196,600 mt in physical content, up 6.81% MoM and up 7.35% YoY. Despite the sustained domestic demand, October imports of recycled copper raw materials increased instead of decreasing, exceeding market expectations.
(5) Inventories: On November 20, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 2,900 mt to 155,025 mt. On November 21, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 5,193 mt to 49,790 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, dovish comments from US officials boosted expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in December, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index, which is positive for copper prices. Additionally, progress in US-led negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is expected to advance the peace process, easing market risk-off sentiment and also supporting copper prices. On the fundamentals, supply side, warrant releases in some regions alleviated tight supply. Demand side, procurement sentiment continued to recover as copper prices corrected. Overall, copper prices are expected to find support today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
